On June 25, local time, during the NATO summit, US President Trump made a heavy statement, saying bluntly that "the conflict between Israel and Iran may break out again, perhaps soon". This statement broke the market's expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East and triggered shocks in global financial markets. As of the early Asian session on June 26, the spot gold price rebounded rapidly from a two-week low of $3,322.93 per ounce to around $3,345.62, an increase of 0.4%, while the US dollar index fell to 97.46, a new low since March 2022, providing double support for gold prices.

On June 24, US Middle East envoy Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News that the United States is conducting direct and indirect contacts with Iran, and that "now is the time" to negotiate a comprehensive peace agreement, and stressed that he is "very confident in reaching an agreement." This statement echoes the ceasefire decision announced by Iranian President Pezhashyan on the same day - Pezhashyan said that the 12-day conflict provoked by Israel has ended, and Iran will devote its energy to reconstruction. On the same day, Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed that although some of Iran's nuclear facilities were damaged, key research reactors and power reactors were not attacked, preserving the scientific and technological foundation for subsequent negotiations.

On June 24, the internal debate on the path of interest rate cuts in the Federal Reserve became more intense. Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman nominated by Trump for Supervision, made it clear in her testimony to Congress that if inflation remains mild, she supports starting interest rate cuts as early as July to "prevent possible structural weakness in the labor market." This statement echoes that of another close confidant of Trump, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller, who emphasized in his speech on June 20 that the impact of tariffs on inflation "may be short-lived" and that the Federal Reserve should "prioritize economic downside risks" to open a policy window for a July interest rate cut.

At the June 2025 monetary policy meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected by the market, while reiterating its policy inclination to cut interest rates twice this year. The signals released by this meeting were relatively mild, and the market reaction was flat. Citigroup described it as a "lackluster" policy meeting. The Fed's updated economic forecasts showed only slight adjustments to expectations for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, but the "dot plot" revealed clear differences among internal decision-makers: 8 policymakers expected two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting concerns about slowing economic growth and pressures in the job market; 7 policymakers tended to keep the balance unchanged, highlighting the clarity of the balance between inflation and response policies.

As of the early Asian session on June 23, spot gold opened with a gap today. Stimulated by the news of the US air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, the intraday high reached 3,388.91 US dollars per ounce, and then the price fluctuated and fell to 3,358.35 US dollars per ounce, and the low reached 3,347.28 US dollars per ounce.

On June 20, local time, Israeli security sources revealed to Iran International Television that the Israeli army plans to launch a "desperate" strike on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility in the next 48 to 72 hours, even if the United States refuses to directly participate in the war.

On June 17, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain its target interest rate at 0.5%, keeping its monetary policy unchanged for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The bank voted 8 to 1 to extend the existing bond reduction plan until March 2026, reducing the purchase of government bonds by about 200 billion yen per month from April 2026, until the monthly purchase scale is reduced to about 2 trillion yen from January to March 2027.

Although Iran announced the resumption of dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Agency, market concerns about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have temporarily subsided, but the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations issued a statement in the early morning of the 17th saying that "negotiations are too early and Israel will fight to the end", which once again ignited geopolitical risk expectations. At the same time, after shortening his G7 summit trip and returning to the United States, US President Trump denied that he "returned to the United States urgently for a ceasefire" on the morning of the 17th, emphasizing that "the United States is committed to ensuring the denuclearization of Iran", further exacerbating market uncertainty.

The Israeli army had previously destroyed more than 40 key targets in Iran, including the Natanz nuclear facility, missile factories and the Revolutionary Guard headquarters in Tehran. Iran's air defense system was paralyzed in the first round of attacks, and Israeli fighter jets then penetrated deep into Iran's hinterland and continued to operate over Tehran for 2.5 hours, completely controlling the air supremacy from western Iran to the capital.