The dollar has been unexpectedly strong as President-elect Trump prepares to return to the White House. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve's nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index for the dollar was just below 130, the highest level since March 1973. The ICE Dollar Index recently broke through 110, reaching its highest level since November 2022. The dollar index has risen 9% since Election Day and 7.7% in the quarter ended December, its best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2015.

Recently, there have been two significant changes in the global energy market: first, six EU countries called on the Group of Seven to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil; second, the amount of crude oil imported by the United States from Saudi Arabia has dropped to the lowest point in nearly 40 years. These two events not only reflect the dynamic adjustments in the energy market, but also reveal profound changes in the geopolitical landscape.

In December 2024, the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs, which was consistent with market expectations of 160,000 and the highest since April 2024. Adjustments were made, resulting in a total of 8,000 jobs being refunded in October and November.

The United States is about to release a series of key labor market data, among which the December non-farm payrolls report on January 10 is bound to attract much attention. Analysts generally expect that the December non-farm data will no longer be affected by special factors in previous months (such as hurricanes and strikes), and will more accurately reflect the actual situation of the current labor market, and may have an important impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. At present, the market predicts that the median number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in December will be 160,000, a decrease from 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at around 4.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages is also expected to remain at 4%.

Asian currencies have generally fallen to their lowest levels in 20 years recently, mainly due to the strong growth of the US dollar and the vow of US President-elect Trump to raise tariffs. The Bloomberg Asian Currency Index fell to 89.0409 on Monday, its lowest level since 2006. Asian currencies have been pressured by a broad dollar rally as Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about the path of interest rates and investors worry that Trump's tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures.