The U.S. economy is at a crossroads. On the one hand, inflation showed signs of slowing down, but on the other hand, the fiscal deficit continued to expand. The two forces are intertwined, outlining a complex and subtle economic picture.

At 20:30 on the evening of March 12, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations of 2.9% and 0.3%. The core CPI excluding food and energy was 3.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, also lower than the expected 3.2% and 0.3%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 20:30 on Wednesday, March 12. Inflation was widely expected to ease during the month, but price pressures remained above what Fed officials had hoped for. After months of stagnant inflation progress, the impact of new Trump administration policies, such as tariffs and immigration restrictions, has renewed concerns about the prospects for improving inflation.

At 20:30 Beijing time on March 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. The market generally expects that, supported by the rebound in energy prices and housing costs, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February may rise slightly to 3.2% from 3.1% in January, and the core CPI will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%.

The first nonfarm report of Trump's presidency released on Friday showed that U.S. job growth accelerated in February and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, but increased uncertainty in trade policy and large layoffs in the U.S. federal government may weaken the resilience of the labor market in the coming months. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, seasonally adjusted, lower than the expected 160,000.

Last Friday (21:30 p.m. on March 7), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February non-farm employment report, with 151,000 new jobs, slightly higher than the previous value of 143,000 but lower than the market expectation of 159,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, and the hourly wage growth slowed to 3.1%. Data showed that the U.S. labor market showed signs of a mild cooling, which resonated with the previous weak ADP employment data, further strengthening the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.

Last week, international gold prices experienced a sharp drop. The price of the main gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 3.55% in total, ending the previous nine-week rally. This was also the largest single-week drop in international gold prices since November last year.

The U.S. ADP employment data for February was unexpectedly disappointing, far below market expectations. This result instantly ignited investors' sensitive nerves. The gold market was the first to react violently, and prices fluctuated sharply. At the same time, the evolution of expectations for the Fed's rate cut has entered a new stage, and the upcoming non-farm data is seen by the market as a key factor in determining the next direction of gold.

In January, non-farm employment increased by 143,000 (previous value revised up to 307,000), and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%, but the unexpected wage growth rate (4.1% year-on-year) raised inflation concerns. The market needs to verify whether the February data continues the combination of "strong employment + high wages" or shows signs of economic slowdown.