Spot gold reached a high of $3,440 per ounce, up 1.83% on the day, a new high in nearly a month; Brent crude oil soared to $89.65 per barrel, up 6.2%. After Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a tough statement on the 13th, all flights at Tehran Airport in Iran were suspended, and F-14 fighter jets carrying "Faith-90" missiles took off urgently. The situation in the Middle East was on the verge of getting out of control, and safe-haven assets soared across the board.

On the evening of June 11, the U.S. Department of Labor released the CPI data for May. The total CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year (expected 2.5%), the core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year (expected 2.9%), and the month-on-month increase was only 0.1% (expected 0.2%), both lower than market expectations. After the data was released, spot gold soared by $12 in the short term to $3,376.3 per ounce (the highest in the Asian session on June 12), a new high this week; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plummeted by 5 basis points to 4.38%, and the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year rose to 72%.

As the Trump administration's tariff policy and immigration restrictions are affecting the U.S. economy at the same time, a set of seemingly contradictory data is causing the market to think deeply about the true health of the economy. The changes in the consumer price index (CPI) and the job market in May are essentially a microcosm of the distortion of economic signals under policy intervention, and this phenomenon is making the Federal Reserve's monetary policy regulation fall into an unprecedentedly complex situation.

On June 10, local time, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway issued a joint statement announcing asset freezes and travel bans on Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The reason for the sanctions is that the two have repeatedly incited extreme violence against Palestinians, including supporting settlement expansion and advocating forced displacement of Palestinians. This is the first time that Western countries have imposed sanctions on Israeli cabinet ministers, marking a significant divergence in the Western camp's policy toward Israel.

On June 9, local time, US President Trump announced that he would send an additional 2,000 National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles to deal with the ongoing riots caused by conflicts over immigration enforcement. This deployment is a further intervention by the Trump administration in the situation in California after the first dispatch of 2,000 National Guard troops on the 7th. As of June 10, 1,700 National Guard soldiers and 700 Marines have been deployed in the greater Los Angeles area, focusing on protecting federal agencies and personnel.

The non-farm payrolls data for May released by the U.S. Department of Labor on June 6 showed that the number of new jobs was 139,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 130,000, but slower than the revised 147,000 in April. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, in line with expectations. The wage growth rate exceeded expectations, with the average hourly wage increasing by 3.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that labor cost pressures still exist.

On June 6, local time, Federal Reserve Board member Michelle W. Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid gave speeches respectively, clearly identifying inflation as the "number one threat" to the current economy. Kugler pointed out that the Trump administration's tariff policy has had a substantial impact on prices, and it is expected that inflationary pressure will continue to worsen in 2025.

In the early morning of June 4, the Ukrainian military launched a new round of attacks on the Crimean Bridge using an improved TB-2 drone, blowing up two lanes of the bridge and interrupting road traffic. This is the third major attack on the bridge since it was first attacked in October 2022. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said the operation was aimed at "cutting off the Russian military's logistical supply lines."

On the evening of June 4th, Beijing time, the U.S. ADP employment data for May (commonly known as "small non-farm") shocked the market with 37,000 new jobs, only one-third of the expected value of 110,000, the lowest increase since March 2023. After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index plunged 20 basis points in the short term, once falling below the 99 mark to 98.9783, and spot gold soared by $6 to $3,354.52 per ounce, highlighting the market's concerns about the economic outlook and the surge in risk aversion demand.