【MACRO Times】Trump’s major shift in energy policy—releasing fossil fuels and reshaping the global energy landscape

【MACRO Times】Trump’s major shift in energy policy—releasing fossil fuels and reshaping the global energy landscape

People familiar with the matter said Trump plans to take a series of actions immediately after taking office to invoke emergency powers to free up domestic energy production plans in the United States while reversing the Biden administration's actions to combat climate change. The shift is aimed at fulfilling his campaign promise to boost domestic energy production and reorient federal government policy to support oil and gas production, in contrast to the Biden administration's efforts to curb fossil fuels.

Trump vowed on the campaign trail to declare a national energy emergency, saying it was necessary to increase production and cope with rapid growth in demand brought about by the rapid development of artificial intelligence. Declaring a national emergency allows the president to invoke up to 150 special powers, which are typically used to respond to hurricanes, terrorist attacks and other unforeseen events, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. However, it is unclear whether Trump can successfully use these powers to achieve his goal of building more power plants.

 

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This time, he is expected to use executive powers broadly, including lifting a moratorium on new U.S. liquefied natural gas export licenses, undoing measures implemented by Biden and cutting federal incentives for electric vehicles. to facilitate new oil and gas development on federal lands, while directing the rollback of Biden-era climate regulations that would remove approximately 625 million acres of U.S. waters from status as available for oil and gas leasing. Biden's announcement has already drawn legal challenges from the American Petroleum Institute, Alaska and several states, but the legality of Trump's reversal of the decision may also need to be determined by a federal court.

This will affect every aspect of the U.S. energy industry, from oil fields to car dealerships. He will also push to roll back a set of strict government regulations covering vehicle pollution and fuel economy, which he calls "electric vehicle accountability." Asian fossil fuel buyers, seeking to appease the incoming Trump administration, have concluded that buying more U.S. oil and gas would increase their leverage in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on several countries that have trade surpluses with the United States have prompted policymakers in South Korea, Vietnam and the European Union to consider buying more energy from the United States.

 

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U.S. trading partners generally view buying American liquefied natural gas as helpful in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. Since Trump’s election, there has been a clear and rapid shift toward ensuring America’s supplies. The shift would allow Trump to deliver on his promise to voters to return fully to fossil fuels by not only expanding U.S. liquefied natural gas exports beyond a planned goal of doubling them by 2030, but also by making the U.S. Project developers have an advantage over rival exporters.

Kazuhiro Ikebe, president of Japan's Kyushu Electric Power Co., said increased U.S. liquefied natural gas production is "good news" for the utility industry because it could stabilize prices. Buyers have been dealing with volatile natural gas prices since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. Buyers in countries including Japan and Thailand have reopened talks over U.S. LNG export plans in recent months, with traders involved in the talks saying they are willing to sign deals with the United States if the price is right.

 

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About half of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe last year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The loss of Russian pipeline gas flows at the start of the year means the continent may also turn to U.S. supplies to make up the shortfall. Last month, Trump warned the European Union that its goods would be hit with U.S. tariffs if its members did not buy more American oil and gas.

However, markets are unlikely to see any immediate impact. Importers will not be able to easily increase purchases from the United States in the coming years because much of the country's current production is tied up in long-term contracts. Instead, traders negotiating with U.S. exporters say they are looking at locking in billions of dollars’ worth of supplies, without which proposed U.S. projects — which would take years to build — cannot proceed. Even the Alaska liquefied natural gas project, which has been in preparation for more than a decade but has been long delayed, may be advanced during Trump's term.

 

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The new government is also expected to leverage the country’s dominance in liquefied natural gas to gain benefits elsewhere, such as in an escalating trade war with foreign countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen quickly discussed LNG exports with Trump after his election victory last November and said the U.S. fuel could help replace Europe's still-robust Russian supplies. South Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Deok-geun also said: "Other countries are talking about how to reduce the growing trade deficit during the Trump administration, and everyone is saying they want American energy."

Overall, the Trump administration's energy policy shift aims to reshape the U.S. domestic energy landscape, consolidate its global energy dominance, unlock domestic energy production, support oil and gas development, while reversing the Biden administration's climate regulations and electric vehicles. Incentives. This policy not only fulfills Trump's campaign promise, but also enhances the United States' competitiveness in the global energy market by expanding liquefied natural gas exports. At the same time, it has forced Asian and European buyers to increase their purchases of U.S. energy in response to tariff threats, which has not only stabilized natural gas prices but also provided the United States with bargaining chips in the trade war. However, the policy has also raised concerns among environmentalists that its legality could face court scrutiny and that its market impact will be limited in the short term.



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