Gaza ceasefire "blunder" caused market shock! Hamas "agreed" was denied by the United States and Israel, and the demand for gold as a safe haven surged

Recently, there was a dramatic turn in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations - Hamas announced through an intermediary that it accepted the ceasefire plan proposed by US envoy Witkoff, which was then quickly denied by both the US and Israel, triggering market concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

1. Details of the incident: The “Rashomon” of the ceasefire agreement and the continued escalation of military operations

According to multiple sources, the core content of the ceasefire agreement includes: Hamas releases 10 Israeli hostages in two batches in exchange for a 70-day ceasefire and Israel's partial withdrawal from Gaza; Israel simultaneously releases hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. However, the agreement was "triple denied" by the United States and Israel as soon as it was announced: Witkov publicly stated that "Hamas's statement is completely unacceptable", Israeli officials said that the agreement "cannot achieve the war goals", and the Netanyahu government announced that it would occupy 75% of Gaza within two months.

The differences in the positions of the two sides in the conflict exposed the difficulties in the negotiations: Hamas insisted on a permanent ceasefire based on the full withdrawal of Israeli troops, while Israel was only willing to accept a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages. This conflict directly led to the Israeli army launching an "unprecedented attack" in southern Gaza, demanding that 2 million Palestinian civilians move to the coastal area, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

2. Geopolitical chain reaction: Division of the international community and risk of proxy wars

This blunder has heightened uncertainty in the Middle East:

Israeli military expansion: The Israeli army has controlled 40% of Gaza's land and plans to completely eliminate Hamas' military capabilities through Operation Gideon's Chariot, which may trigger retaliatory attacks by Iranian proxy forces such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

International public opinion exerts pressure: the EU launches a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, German Chancellor Merz condemns the Israeli military's actions as "incomprehensible", the UK suspends free trade negotiations with Israel, and the risk of multilateral sanctions increases.

Iran's attitude escalates: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei hinted at possible intervention through proxy armed forces. If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, the situation in the Middle East may evolve into a full-scale conflict, and the safe-haven premium of gold will further expand.

3. Gold market impact: safe-haven premium

Geopolitical risk premium soars: Historical data shows that when the conflict in the Middle East escalates, the average daily increase in gold can reach 1.5%-2%. The ceasefire incident briefly suppressed the price of gold, but the expectation of the Israeli army's expansion of the offensive promoted bargain-hunting, forming a strong support near $3,300.

Weak dollar and monetary policy expectations: The dollar index fell below the 100 mark to 98.77, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged (4.25%-4.5%), and the market's expectations for rate cuts were postponed to December, making dollar assets less attractive. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to "Aa1", weakening the credit foundation of the dollar.

The dramatic reversal of the Gaza ceasefire agreement highlights the fragility and complexity of the situation in the Middle East. Driven by safe-haven demand, weak U.S. dollar and the trend of de-dollarization, gold has sufficient short-term upward momentum. Investors can rely on the key support of $3,300 to arrange long orders, while paying close attention to the policy trends of the Federal Reserve and the progress of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and flexibly adjust positions. Against the backdrop of the shaky credit system of the U.S. dollar, the safe-haven and anti-inflation value of gold will become increasingly prominent.