Crimea bridge attacked again! Conflict breaks out again after negotiations, senior Russian official vows "full retaliation"

In the early morning of June 4, the Ukrainian military launched a new round of attacks on the Crimean Bridge using an improved TB-2 drone, blowing up two lanes of the bridge and interrupting highway traffic. This is the third major attack on the bridge since it was first attacked in October 2022. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said the operation was aimed at "cutting off the Russian military's logistical supply lines." Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu delivered a televised speech that day, accusing Ukraine of "terrorist acts" and warning of "indiscriminate retaliation" against the Kiev decision-making center. Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev bluntly stated that "the conflict is no longer negotiable and will be fought until Ukraine is completely demilitarized."

1. Attack details and war impact

The Ukrainian military said it used six modified drones, three of which carried 500-kilogram high-explosive bombs, to break through Russia's Pantsir-S air defense system and accurately hit the highway section on the south side of the bridge.

The Crimean Bridge is a key channel connecting the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula. More than 2,000 trucks pass through it every day, carrying 85% of the Russian army's front-line material transportation. The attack caused the logistics supply of the Russian army's Donbas cluster to be delayed by at least 72 hours.

Russia then launched a missile attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, destroying three railway bridges and an arsenal, intensifying the vicious cycle of "bombing to counter bombing" between Russia and Ukraine.

2. International reactions and sanctions

On June 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the acceleration of the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, adding an export ban on 20 Russian military companies and expanding the list of individuals whose assets are frozen. The US State Department condemned Russia's "excessive military response" but refused to commit to providing Ukraine with long-range missile systems, and the market is worried that the risk of spillover from the conflict will further increase.

2. Gold safe-haven demand surges, $3,330 support becomes focus of long and short competition

The sudden escalation of geopolitical conflicts has driven a surge in safe-haven buying of gold. In early Asian trading on June 4, the price of spot gold rose to $3,370 an ounce today, recovering some of the losses of the previous trading day, as rising geopolitical and economic risks boosted its safe-haven appeal.

儘管美元指數因美聯儲鷹派言論反彈至99.10，但俄烏衝突陞級引發的“安全資產荒”蓋過美元強勢影響。 世界黃金協會(WGC)報告指出，當全球地緣風險指數超過120點時，黃金與美元的正相關性將提升至0.6(通常為-0.3)，當前該指數已達135點，創2022年3月以來新高。

If Russia launches a "retaliatory nuclear deterrence exercise", it may trigger panic buying in the market, and gold may break through the psychological barrier of $3,400. If Ukraine announces that it accepts the conditions for peace talks, we need to be alert to the short-term pullback of gold to $3,300, and it is recommended to control the position within 10%.

Note: The Crimean bridge attack is still unfolding and this article does not constitute investment advice.