European defense autonomy accelerates: France and Britain will provide military assistance to Ukraine, and gold's safe-haven appeal is boosted again

 

　　1. The European Defense Alliance is launched, and Ukraine becomes the fulcrum of the war

On March 28, the Paris Summit announced that France and Britain would take the lead in establishing the "European Alliance of the Will" to officially launch the Ukrainian military security plan. According to the agreement, Europe will invest 2 billion euros in military aid, including cutting-edge equipment such as Rafale fighter jets and SCALP cruise missiles, and plans to build the Ukrainian army into a standing force of 500,000 to 1 million people in the next three years to form a "steel line of defense" against Russia. Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen stressed that this force will be stationed in Ukraine and become the "first line of defense" for European security.

The action marks a major shift in European defense policy. Previously, the US military aid to Ukraine was stuck in a political deadlock, and many European countries were worried that over-reliance on the US would lead to a passive position in the war. French President Macron bluntly stated: "Europe must take control of its own destiny." Data shows that in 2024, European countries' military aid to Ukraine increased by 140% year-on-year, surpassing the United States to become Ukraine's largest source of military aid.

2. Escalating geopolitical conflicts boost safe-haven demand

 

The situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate. The Russian army recently launched a new round of drone attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, destroying a total of 117 incoming drones. The French and British military intervention triggered a strong reaction from Russia, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warning that "any foreign military presence will be considered a legitimate target."

Affected by this, the international spot gold price broke through US$3,080 per ounce, redrawing the historical record, with a daily increase of more than 0.9%. Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300, and in extreme cases it may exceed $4,200.

 

　　3. European defense autonomy reshapes the global financial landscape

The establishment of the European Defense Alliance is changing the logic of global asset allocation:

1. De-dollarization accelerates: France announced that military aid will be partially settled in euros, and the European Central Bank plans to expand gold reserves to 20% of total reserves (currently 17.5%)

2. The rise of regional currencies: GBP/EUR exchange rate broke through the 1.18 mark, hitting a three-month high, reflecting the market's confidence in the European economy.

3. Energy security premium: European gas futures prices rebounded to 45 euros/MWh, driving resource stocks higher

The current gold market is in a stage of "geopolitical risk premium + loose monetary policy". Investors need to focus on: the countermeasures after the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on April 2; the impact of the US non-farm data on April 5 on the Federal Reserve's policy; and the specific deployment of the European Defense Alliance's subsequent military operations.